Cowboys should consider upgrading tight end position after Jake Ferguson’s down year.
The Cowboys wrapped up the 2024 season on a relatively positive note, with a defense that appeared genuinely exceptional and several young offensive players making notable progress. However, the main issue that held the team back this year was the regression of the offense, which began even before Dak Prescott was sidelined for the remainder of the season.
While part of the problem was Prescott’s poor performance—he posted career lows in completion percentage, EPA/dropback, CPOE, yards per attempt, and turnover-worthy play rate—other factors contributed as well. CeeDee Lamb struggled early in the season after missing most of the offseason due to a contract holdout. The offensive line also experienced frequent personnel changes throughout the year.
Perhaps the most significant issue, however, was the lack of options for Prescott outside of Lamb. Brandin Cooks’ injury early in the season didn’t help, but even before his injury, Cooks had been a minimal factor in the offense. Jalen Tolbert showed improvement as the season progressed but had trouble gaining separation.
One player the Cowboys hoped would take a major step forward was Jake Ferguson. In his first year as the starting tight end, Ferguson had a breakout season, with 761 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 71 catches, ranking in the top 10 for tight ends. Prescott also had a 109.8 passer rating when targeting Ferguson, better than only George Kittle and Sam LaPorta.
Unfortunately, Ferguson didn’t build on his impressive 2023 Pro Bowl campaign. In fact, he experienced a noticeable regression. While it’s important to note that Ferguson dealt with multiple injuries, including a concussion that caused him to miss two games, his performance this year showed troubling signs of decline.
DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, is a metric that uses DVOA to assess an individual player’s efficiency over the course of a season. For example, the top tight ends this year by DYAR were George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Tucker Kraft. Brock Bowers narrowly missed the top spots due to his large target share, which led to more drops and incompletions, negatively affecting his final numbers.
However, when applying this metric to Jake Ferguson, he not only ranked as the least efficient tight end of the season but also the least efficient tight end in NFL history. Ferguson finished with 494 receiving yards on 59 receptions, failing to score a touchdown throughout the year. His 8.4 yards per reception was a career low, and his yards after the catch per reception also dipped below six for the first time in his career, indicating a significant drop in his performance.
Ferguson’s play also became sloppier. Coming into the season, he had never fumbled the ball, but he fumbled four times this year, losing two of them. Additionally, he led all skill players in penalties with nine, despite missing three games. The Cowboys had high hopes for him, but Ferguson’s performance took a disappointing turn.
While the quarterback situation certainly didn’t help, it wasn’t the primary reason for Ferguson’s struggles. His receiving DVOA, which evaluates efficiency on a per-play basis, was -24% when Dak Prescott was playing. Even with backup Cooper Rush, his DVOA worsened to -51%. This suggests that Ferguson was inefficient even before Prescott’s injury.
As Ferguson heads into the final year of his rookie contract, his inconsistent performance puts the Cowboys in a difficult position. While he has shown the potential to be a top-tier player, his lack of consistency raises concerns. With Prescott returning from a second serious injury, it’s clear that he will need reliable weapons beyond CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys will likely need to add another wide receiver to the roster, rather than depending on Ferguson to be a consistent second option in the passing game. There will also be opportunities to improve the tight end position, whether through free agents like Mo Alie-Cox or Mike Gesicki, or by selecting a draft prospect such as Penn State’s Tyler Warren.
While the Cowboys shouldn’t give up on Ferguson just yet, they also shouldn’t place as much trust in his potential for a bounce-back year as they did last offseason. If an opportunity to upgrade the tight end position arises, the Cowboys would be wise to take advantage.
