sad news for Toronto maple leafs: I want to leave
Maple Leafs at the trade deadline: A debate on the merits of going ‘all in’ — again
Maple Leafs at the trade deadline: A debate on the merits of going ‘all in’ — again
Jonas Siegel: OK, Joshua, we’re here to hash out an argument we’ve been having for months now: How much should the Toronto Maple Leafs be prepared to sacrifice ahead of the trade deadline? I believe — strongly! — that anything and everything short of the obvious should be on the table for the right player(s). First-round pick? You betcha. Easton Cowan? Fraser Minten? Under the right circumstances, yes.
Tell me why you think I’m misguided.
Joshua Kloke: Well, first of all, you eat McDonald’s regularly. But that’s a debate for another day.
More importantly, the Leafs’ window to contend is not closing this season or anytime soon. Remember when management made it clear that 2021 wasn’t a “Last Dance” season? With Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly all under contract until at least 2028, 2024 isn’t that kind of season, either. This organization believes that with the best player in franchise history locked up, it can have sustainable success. And that’s fair given how Matthews continues to trend upward.
So if that’s the case, why give up the few chips you have now for a (possible) quick payoff?
Siegel: A “quick payoff” is the whole point! A quick payoff equals the Stanley Cup.
This team has a chance to win the franchise’s first one in 57 years (!), in large part because it has those players you’re talking about — Matthews, Nylander, Rielly and also Mitch Marner — in the prime of their careers. To not take advantage of that, by improving the roster any way you can, because you’re worried about 2025 or whatever seems foolish.
You’re also making assumptions about the future that might not be true.
Take Matthews, for instance. He’s putting together an unprecedented season, combining almost unparalleled scoring with A-plus defence. How can you — or, rather, they — be sure he’ll be in quite that form next season or the one after that?
Stuff happens. Injuries happen.
All you have to do is look back to last season when Matthews, playing through injuries, was never quite this. He finished with 40 goals. He hit 40 in game No. 46 this season.
Kloke: Yeah, but we’re both making assumptions about the future that might not come true, no?
You’re assuming the player the Leafs acquire for a prospect will be some sort of difference-maker in a long playoff run. That doesn’t always pan out as hoped. I didn’t think the Nick Foligno acquisition was that bad off the hop (I was wrong. I’ve been wrong before, but I’m not wrong here, brother!), but looking back, it wasn’t a great swing. Can’t you see what a gamble it is to give up a first-round pick or prospect for a veteran? Do you trust this management group to find the right player in exchange for Cowan or Minten?
And you’re assuming the prospects the Leafs have might not pan out as bona fide impact-makers in the NHL. All things being equal, when it comes to this philosophical gamble, I’m betting on the seemingly infinite resources the organization sinks into its development staff to mold the likes of Cowan and Minten into Leafs.
This might be less about the Leafs and more about my philosophy about roster building, but I’d rather stick with what I know. I’d rather keep the kids, try to develop them, give them proper runway and know for sure (or as close as I can get to being sure) before dumping them. 
Does that make me better suited to be a general manager in, say, the youth-focused SHL? Maybe, but I think we can both agree you could do a lot worse than living in Stockholm.
Siegel: You’ve hit on something important: If you’re going to trade your first-round pick, trade your first-round pick for someone who merits that price tag. I wasn’t a huge fan of that Foligno deal at the time for that reason. He was older. He was getting hurt. He was declining.
But pick the right player(s) and the price tag can be worthwhile. Jake Muzzin was worth a first-round pick (and other goodies). So was Ryan O’Reilly (plus Noel Acciari) given his two-way upside. I thought the Leafs should have used their top pick on Dmitry Orlov last spring, but Jake McCabe for three potential playoff runs at $2 million (plus Sam Lafferty) wasn’t bad.
The interesting question right now is: Is there a player, or combination of players, worth a first-round pick and/or one of those prospects we’re talking about?
Trading a first-round pick for Matt Dumba on an expiring contract, say, would not be smart. Trading a first-round pick for Adam Larsson, who has another year left on his contract, would be.
To just cross off the best assets needlessly limits your options.
Kloke:
So are you saying they shouldn’t be exchanging anything absent for a tall choose or a prospect right presently, given the shortage of quality players with term accessible?
Since when I study the scene, I do not see a ton of players I’m beyond any doubt would be worth flipping Cowan, Minten or indeed Topi Niemela for.
Keeping and creating your best prospects doesn’t fair offer assistance amid the exchange due date.
Groups (just like the Leafs, I think we got to recognize) regularly overpay for bottom-of-the-lineup fellows amid free office. Giving chances to more youthful folks like Cowan and Minten, who come on cheaper bargains, would permit for assets to be superior apportioned toward proven top-six/top-four veterans come 2025.
Keep in mind that maybe-true/maybe-not bargain from 2022 that was reaching to send Matthew Knies to the Chicago Blackhawks?
That would have ransacked this group of a first-line winger gaining $925,000.
Why exchange Cowan, Minten and Niemela and (conceivably) victimize the 2025 Leafs of a chance for that kind of payoff once more?
Siegel:
Bad illustration, my fellow.
That exchange you’re alluding to would have supposedly gotten the Leafs, among other things, Brandon Hagel, who is way better (by a part) than Matthew Knies, still as it were 25 and making as it were $1.5 million on the cap. (He had another two a long time cleared out on his contract at that time.)
The Tampa Inlet Lightning exchanged for Hagel instep and made their third straight Stanley Container Last.
Who knows what happens on the off chance that the Leafs make that exchange? Possibly they beat the Lightning (including Hagel) in the first round and go on to win the Glass.
