What must happen for Tottenham, Aston Villa or Man Utd to qualify for Champions League in fifth

Ange Postecoglou, the manager of Tottenham Hotspur, may not be counting on an additional Champions League berth this season, but it is still a possibility.

This week, with the Premier League vying for an additional Champions League qualification slot, Arsenal and West Ham might find themselves doing their local rivals Tottenham Hotspur a favor.

Due to the expanded scope of the redesigned Champions League, which will debut with more teams next season, two European leagues will receive an additional spot in the competition. This spot will be distributed based on which two nations have the best overall record across all UEFA competitions this year.

The current Premier League top four teams advance to the Champions League, however depending on how the English teams fare in Europe, that number could fall to fifth this year. Aston Villa is now in fourth place in the table, two points ahead of Spurs with a game remaining. Six points behind Tottenham and 20 goals less than Ange Postecoglou’s team, Manchester United is in sixth place.

The question is, how does the ranking system choose which two European leagues receive the additional spots?

The scoring comes first. Based on the teams’ results in the Champions competition, Europa League, and Europa Conference League, UEFA will determine that by summing up the coefficient points for each competition. For a base, a win is worth two points, and a draw is worth one point.

Bonus points are also awarded for every competition. Four bonus points are awarded to teams that make it through the Champions League group stage; five bonus points are awarded in the round of 16, and one bonus point is awarded to the league for each quarter-final, semifinal, and championship. Group winners in the Europa League receive four extra points, runners-up in the group receive two, and advancement to the round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal, and final earns one point.

In the Conference League, teams that place first in their group receive two bonus points, second in their group receive one, and teams that advance to the semifinals and final both receive an additional point.

To get the coefficient average, the points for each nation are added up and divided by the total number of teams that participated in UEFA competitions at the beginning of the season.

With 16.571 and 15.928 points, respectively, Italy and Germany lead the current coefficient rankings. With precisely 15 points, England is in third place; France is in fourth place with 14.416, and Spain is in fifth place with 14.187.

The Conference League and Europa League matches on Thursday may have a significant impact on England’s ultimate standing. Germany’s Bayern and Borussia Dortmund are through to the quarterfinals of the Champions League, while Manchester City and Arsenal are through from the Premier League. With the elimination of Napoli and Inter this week, Italy is currently without a presence in the elite tournament.

England leads Italy and Germany in the number of teams still competing in European events with six, ahead of this evening’s fixtures. Spain has five, and France has three.

The round of 16 games on Thursday night, though, will alter the situation. Liverpool should be comfortable at Anfield against Sparta Prague thanks to their 5-1 lead from the first leg, but Brighton will find it extremely difficult to overcome a 4-0 deficit at home against Roma in the Europa League. West Ham has to overcome a 1-0 deficit against Freiburg at home. A win would benefit England while negatively affecting Germany’s coefficient.

Then there are Villa, who after a goalless first leg in the Netherlands, host Ajax at Villa Park in the Conference League.

Spurs supporters may be merely observing with curiosity to see how English teams perform in Europe, but Postecoglou is one man who is not in need of assistance.

“I don’t understand why someone would try to aim for anything else than the top spot. When asked if finishing in fifth place meant a Champions League qualification spot—a type of insurance policy—he responded, “I don’t see the point.”

“A few teams from last year’s Champions League qualified this year after having strong seasons. Does that mean anything for the next season? No. I’ve always stated that I’m not desperate to acquire anything for security or comfort. My goal is to build a winning squad. I’m just not constructed that way, so to me, it defies logic to aspire for anything less than the top.

“I won’t settle for anything less than that, even though it doesn’t guarantee you will always succeed. It’s my fault if I don’t measure up, okay? However, I won’t sit here and try to imagine a situation in which we’re content with anything other than being the first. My honest opinion though.