With one round of games remaining, there are numerous variables the Springboks must be aware of as the Rugby World Cup quarter-final line-ups are still subject to change.

RUGBY WORLD CUP PERMUTATIONS

Only Wales and England have already secured their place in the quarterfinals of the 2023 World Cup as the pool round enters its last round.

While the Springboks, Ireland, and Scotland are still in the running to advance from Pool B, France and New Zealand are vying for the top two spots in Pool A.

In Pool C, Fiji and Australia are attempting to join Wales in making it out, while Japan and Samoa’s winner will join England in Pool D’s quarterfinals.

SPRINGBOKS CASTING A WATCHING EYE OVER RIVALS

However, Springbok assistant coach Felix Jones was optimistic that South Africa were in a strong position to make it through to the top eight and they are really only following status of three teams who they think are likely to progress. Pool A’s quarterfinalists were set to play against Pool B’s quarterfinalists.

We’ll keep a watch on the three teams we believe can advance because Italy can yet qualify (in Pool A, which also includes France and New Zealand).” stated Jones.

“In our instance, there are around 20 different permutations that could happen, and although it is unlikely, we could lose in one of them. Therefore, we’ll focus on the opposition following the weekend.

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The twilight zone that all sports teams detest is where the Springboks are right now. They still have a mathematical chance of being disqualified from the Rugby World Cup 2023, therefore they are not totally in control of their course.

The chance that the Boks could be defeated is extremely remote, but it does exist.

The Springboks improved to 15 points in the standings with their 49-18 Pool B victory over Tonga on Sunday night, which saw them score seven tries and receive a bonus point. Thus, they now hold the top spot in Pool B. It’s a solid but not unfailing stance.

The Boks will be eliminated if Scotland defeats Ireland by 21 points or more with a try-scoring bonus point but Ireland scores four tries in the process to earn a bonus point despite losing in their last Pool B match on October 7 in Paris.

Head-to-head results will be used as the first tie-breaker in RWC 2023. However, if three teams finish the Pool phase with the same number of points, which is possible in this case, points difference will be used as a tiebreaker to determine which team would win the Pool.

The head-to-head result between the final two teams battling for the second position is then used again.

Scotland would need to win by a score of at least 41-20 in order to advance with 15 log points, presuming Ireland scored four unconverted tries. With 15 points, all three teams would have finished the Pool phase.

Scotland would win the Pool with a points differential of +118, followed by the Boks (+117), and Ireland (+101).

However, Ireland would advance to the round of eight despite having a lower points differential than the Boks because they defeated South Africa on September 23 in a head-to-head match.

What are Scotland’s chances?

The Boks are now leading the group with 15 points, followed by Ireland with 14 points and Scotland with 10.

How likely is it that Scotland will defeat Ireland by such a large margin?

Let’s just say that it would be a complete shock.

The previous time Scotland defeated Ireland by so much of a margin was in 2001 when they triumphed 32-10 at Murrayfield.

But keep in mind that Ireland would need to score four tries but still lose by more than 21 points for the Boks to be eliminated.

The last time Ireland played Scotland and scored four tries and lost was in 1938 when they were defeated 23-14 during a time when tries only counted for three points.

The scenario in which Scotland gains ground at Ireland’s expense is the more plausible one. To avoid giving Ireland a winning bonus point, they would need to defeat Ireland by eight points.

Scotland and the Boks would both advance with a score of 15-7 in their favor.

Ireland are still not safe either, and they may even be in a more dangerous position than the Boks as a result of the current Pool issue. But at least they have some influence over fate.

Ireland would win the group if they defeated Scotland, regardless of the margin of victory.

When asked if he was concerned that Scotland and Ireland might engineer a result to send the Boks packing, Boks coach Jacques Nienaber said, “Not at all.”

Nienaber seemed genuinely offended by the question. “That would be match-fixing, wouldn’t it,” the Bok coach replied. “Our sport is not about that.”